The UN Climate Change has released a report saying national climate action plans have been found wanting. Action has so far insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Though some countries have fulfilled their commitments, the report shows much more action is needed now. Immediate action is needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
“Today’s report shows that governments combined are taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai, to get on track,” said the executive-secretary of UN Climate Change, Simon Stiell. “This means COP28 must be a clear turning point. Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them.”
Global stocktake at COP28
Stiell stressed that the conclusion of the first global stocktake at COP28 is where nations can regain momentum to scale up their efforts across all areas. The COP28 initiative will help countries get on track with meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. In addition, it is intended to inform the next round of climate action plans under the Paris Agreement to be put forward by 2025. This, the agency hopes, will pave the way for accelerated action.“The Global Stocktake report released by UN Climate Change this year clearly shows where progress is too slow. But it also lays out the vast array of tools and solutions put forward by countries. Billions of people expect to see their governments pick up this toolbox and put it to work,” Stiell said.
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Latest climate update
The latest data from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. This will help limit temperatures rising to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. If achieved, it will also help the world avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Among these include more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.
“Every fraction of a degree matters, but we are severely off track. COP28 is our time to change that,” Stiell said. “It’s time to show the massive benefits now of bolder climate action: more jobs, higher wages, economic growth, opportunity and stability, less pollution and better health.”
In addition, UN Climate Change analyzed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement. This also include 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until 25 September 2023. The current report shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.
According to the report, if the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8%, compared to 2010 levels. This will be a marginal improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
By 2030 emissions are projected to be 2% below 2019 levels, highlighting that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade.
What needs to be done
In order to achieve peaking of emissions before 2030, the report says, “the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms.”
“Using the Global Stocktake to plan ahead, we can make COP28 a game-changer. And provide a springboard for a two-year climate action surge,” Stiell said. “We need to rebuild trust in the Paris process. Which means delivering on all commitments, particularly on finance, the great enabler of climate action. And ensuring that we are increasing resilience to climate impacts everywhere.”
“NDCs remain the cornerstone of our shared vision of achieving the Paris targets, including keeping the target of below 2 degrees and aspiring to limiting increase to below 1.5 degrees,” COP27 President and Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said. “In Sharm El-Sheikh leaders discussed several initiatives to assist us to reach that goal, as well as assist the Global South in adapting their economies accordingly. We need to keep the momentum going as there is no time to waste or lose focus on the target.”
“It is essential while we pursue our undertaking to continue seeking climate justice and assist the Global South, who contribute the least in emissions yet bear the brunt of the most vicious effects of climate change, to not only survive but also transition into more sustainable economy through just transition pathways,” Shoukry said.
Long-term low-emission development strategies
A second UN Climate Change report on long-term low-emission development strategies, also released today, looked at countries’ plans to transition to net-zero emissions by or around mid-century. The report indicated that these countries’ greenhouse gas emissions could be roughly 63% per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019, if all the long-term strategies are fully implemented on time.
Current long-term strategies (representing 75 Parties to the Paris Agreement) account for 87% of the world’s GDP, 68% of global population in 2019, and around 77% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019. This is a strong signal that the world is starting to aim for net-zero emissions.
The report notes, however, that many net-zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now.
The UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) will take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from 30 November to 12 December this year.
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